why is it funny

 

There were 120,000 reservations as of late July.
2022 production will be 15,000.
2023 production was planned at 55,000, and 2024 at 80,000, now planned to be double that.

If you reserve one now and get it in 2023, I would be surprised. There will be no dealer inventory in 2022 besides demo units IMO.

 

If you reserve now you might get a 2024

If you don't reserve, you won't get one till then or later, or you'll have to $win$ a bidding war on a gray-ish market vehicle

 

My guess is even higher.

 

what they said

 

They may not be entirely wrong on thinking they can get one even if they don’t reserve. There is quite the commotion around Maverick reservations showing up on dealer lots after dealer ordered stock units. Ford’s reason for it makes sense from a business perspective, they want to have some on lots that people can drive and try out which should result in more sales overall. But from the customer perspective, people will be able to go in and buy an on the lot Maverick before their reservation order even arrives.

I think Ford is doing the right thing, personally, because I held off on reserving a Mach E because I wanted my wife to try it out and everything, and it took almost a year before we could make that happen. I suspect Ford heard a lot of similar feedback like that which resulted in the change in attitude.

The Lightning may be an entirely different beast, but I also wouldn’t be too surprised if Ford wanted at least big dealers to have a couple in stock for people to check out. It will be way more important for the brand to keep the Lightning in the news for the next few years by having trucks the general public can see, rather than just having the dealer be a delivery and pickup point for orders.

I say that as someone with an early Lightning reservation, so I am not just looking for a way out of not reserving. Just evaluating Ford’s very recent behavior.

The biggest thing that may hold Ford back from going that route is how few Lightnings they can build right away. The Maverick doesn’t have all the restrictions the Lightning has on sourcing those very large battery packs. Ford may want to keep the reservations happy since they are a known audience. While Ford is increasing production capacity, it won’t happen overnight, especially in the current manufacturing environment where they have trouble sourcing even chips for the ICE vehicles. Anyone thinking Ford can just snap their fingers and double battery production overnight has a child-like optimism that many of us wish we never lost.

 

I wouldn't base all of my guesses off of the reservation system. It's only a $100 refundable deposit. Sure, it shows interest but I seriously doubt even 1/2 those people will follow through (it will probably be far less than half). Ford is not the only one in the game. Also, the moment the next major improvement for batteries comes out (which is already in the works it seems) the demand for the current tech (and values of current offerings) will drop significantly.

 

I wouldn’t discount it that much. The Mach E had reservations and continues to sell through inventory, well over a year in. Major improvements don’t come free, any major improvement will have to be integrated into the manufacturing process, go through testing, etc, and there is nothing to indicate that any truly groundbreaking advancements in range or recharge are in immediate release testing.

Ford kind of is the only one in the game with actual delivery dates in mind. Tesla’s CyberTruck is on consistent push back, Rivian has a great looking pre-prod out there that at least one magazine got to review, but also no set dates. Sure, for 2023, there may be other options. But Ford is currently the best option in terms of price and competency in large scale manufacturing.

Time will tell, but I certainly wouldn’t dismiss the reservations, because even if half of those do convert, that still fills up 2022 and 2023 known production counts as it stands right now.

 

True.

BUT if the first person to drive that Lightning says "Shut up and take my money!" then it's obviously gone and there's nothing to show off to prospective buyers any more.

Having DEMO trucks that remain as demo trucks makes sense in this way, having lot trucks for sale that somebody is going to pay out the nose for to have THE shiny new toy nobody else does...not so sure.

But, I understand this and would very much like a local dealer to have a Lightning I can drive sooner than later, I'm looking to buy a 2022 and am not 100% set between grabbing a Powerboost or maybe waiting it out on my Lightning reservation. Who knows I could have a PB ordered, drive a Lightning, and be like...I need this cancel the PB. Who knows

 

Yeah, will just have to wait and see I guess. But even considering demo vehicles, I would have to imagine those also have to come out of the 15k or whatever first year supply, making reservation holders get pushed back in some ways regardless.

I am personally good with it, plan was to have my 2021 until around May of 2023 at least. It's why I didn't do my lightning reservation until the next morning. So I am maybe one of the few that hopes Ford slow rolls it a little bit, haha.