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When is the best time to trade a bought new truck?

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Old 02-28-2017, 12:13 PM
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Originally Posted by engineermike
I get what you're saying....and I actually agree that everyone should have some amount of liquid assets available. Where we disagree is how much we're willing to pay for that availability. There is value in availability.

I ran the numbers a few different ways. These assume you get 2.25% returns vs loan interest of 3% and no change in asset value.

Doing it your way (save the cash, borrow for the truck) nets you a gain of $1600 over 5 years. Doing it my way (pay cash for the truck and save the note) nets me a gain of $5600 over 5 years. So it's costing you $4000 over 5 years to have that $40k available - the cost of cash as you say.

For comparison, if you start with $0, then after 5 years one loses $4760 to interest.
The spread tightens with a scenario like 10k down and finance the rest. Obviously everyone's situation is different. But my point was auto loans are very cheap compared to the market. You can buy a 60,000 dollar condo and pay 4%. Or you can buy a 60,000 truck for 2.9%. A major player in determining interest rates are the risks associated with lending. Autos are significantly riskier than condos.

IMO and nothing more, auto loans should be around 7-8%. But at those rates nobody can afford them and the market would slump.
Old 02-28-2017, 12:23 PM
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I'm sort of on the fence for trading my 2015. I have 1 payment left next month and it's paid for. I already have 67k on the clock, but I also just want to keep it for a long time. Unsure... Also selling my 2013 Expedition because we don't use it anymore and my wife prefers driving her Fiat, so that sale plus a trade in could possibly just pay for a 2018 F-150 straight out. But I might use the cash from the Expedition for something else. The fence will be my seat for a while...


The problem with buying a vehicle is that it's the worst investment anyone can make because of how much they depreciate. It's the opposite of buying a house.

Last edited by BlackBoost; 02-28-2017 at 12:27 PM.
Old 02-28-2017, 12:36 PM
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Originally Posted by BlackBoost
I'm sort of on the fence for trading my 2015. I have 1 payment left next month and it's paid for. I already have 67k on the clock, but I also just want to keep it for a long time. Unsure... Also selling my 2013 Expedition because we don't use it anymore and my wife prefers driving her Fiat, so that sale plus a trade in could possibly just pay for a 2018 F-150 straight out. But I might use the cash from the Expedition for something else. The fence will be my seat for a while...


The problem with buying a vehicle is that it's the worst investment anyone can make because of how much they depreciate. It's the opposite of buying a house.
I agree. Home interest is also deductible. Still doesn't change the fact that auto credit is a really good deal at the moment. It's why everyone can trade in their cars/trucks every 2 years.
Old 02-28-2017, 12:45 PM
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Originally Posted by OmegaF150
I agree. Home interest is also deductible. Still doesn't change the fact that auto credit is a really good deal at the moment. It's why everyone can trade in their cars/trucks every 2 years.
Well, I think I'd still like to try to find the sweet spot of when to trade instead of constantly sinking money into vehicles. My F-150 is the first vehicle I've financed and didn't straight up buy. I may wait until next year and trade to a 2017, or wait until 2019 and trade to a 2018 to get the best trade/deal combo.
Old 02-28-2017, 01:01 PM
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I got out of leasing because I got tired of negotiating every year and the cars really don't improve that much unless it's a redesign. So I bought a 2017 Platinum that I expect to have low mileage come 3yrs. I'll decide then.

**Edit: You can't beat the depreciation, so might as well try to maximize resale.
Old 02-28-2017, 01:56 PM
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Vehicles are way over priced at this point and there needs to be a correction. Used trucks were bargains years ago but when looking for a used truck before I bought my 16 model the cost was within $1800 for buying used vs. buying new. If you figure a higher interest rate on used vehicles vs. new financing then it comes down to a few hundred dollars.

I was looking at a 2012 F150 (needed at truck for small business) with roughly 65K miles on it and was only off of the price of my new truck by $1200. The used market in trucks is making a lot of money in Texas.

As far as trading, drive it as long as possible. I'll have mine long after a loan is paid off. Unless there is an absolute need to get a 3/4 ton truck then the F150 will be with me for at least 12 years or so.

As far as financing goes, to get the 0% interest I would have had to skip all the incentives. Cost analysis for me showed me coming out behind to take 0%. I also didn't want my money tied up in a vehicle that could be wrecked out by someone who was uninsured and loose money.
Old 02-28-2017, 03:14 PM
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I trade every 18-24 months. My trucks are leased and I make extra payments to stay above water. Just ended the lease on my 2015 lariat early and traded for a 2017 lariat special edition with a few grand of equity and a lower payment on another 24 month lease which I will probably end early as well. This means I stay in warranty, I get to drive new stuff and I'm not married to it if it's in a big wreck or becomes a lemon. If the lease deals weren't hot when I bought both of my last trucks, I would have done a 5 year finance.


I'd say the sweet spot to trade is as soon as you owe less than the truck is worth. They usually plateau a little bit around the 2yr mark.
Old 03-01-2017, 10:03 AM
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Originally Posted by HCFX2013
I trade every 18-24 months. My trucks are leased and I make extra payments to stay above water. Just ended the lease on my 2015 lariat early and traded for a 2017 lariat special edition with a few grand of equity and a lower payment on another 24 month lease which I will probably end early as well. This means I stay in warranty, I get to drive new stuff and I'm not married to it if it's in a big wreck or becomes a lemon. If the lease deals weren't hot when I bought both of my last trucks, I would have done a 5 year finance.


I'd say the sweet spot to trade is as soon as you owe less than the truck is worth. They usually plateau a little bit around the 2yr mark.
I still have one car halfway through it's 2yr lease. Haven't decide what I'm going to do when it's up.

I've been using this method since 2012-2013 and it worked well for me. No maintenance costs (even oil changes a Lincoln thing) and no breakdowns. No money down and my payments only seemed to rise 50/month with every new signing.

I'd add that if you own though, you might need to go 3 years because you'll have to sell the car back to someone. And they are going to want to make a profit. Carmax can help, but they really like loaded low mileage vehicles.
Old 03-02-2017, 12:26 PM
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Originally Posted by HCFX2013
I'd say the sweet spot to trade is as soon as you owe less than the truck is worth. They usually plateau a little bit around the 2yr mark.
IMO, I think that is where most go wrong. To buy into a vehicle where you owe more than it's worth off the bat, and then rely on making large payments to buy the payoff down past it's current value is a recipie for disaster. Unless you make large payments and pay more each month, the depreciation over a year is running too close to your payments... at least in the first year for sure. Too many variables can hold you hostage to a vehicle for which you owe more than its worth in that two years you have tried to make headway in.
Old 03-02-2017, 07:05 PM
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Originally Posted by becks
Has anyone broke down the math a figured out the sweet spot for trading in a truck they bought new?
Yes I have and it helps to have a friend that's one of the tops salesmen in the Chicagoland area.

Many dealers do not want a truck over 70K miles and will not give much if over. If over 80K, they don't even keep them, they go to auction. Some dealers are different but most don't want high mileage vehicles especially when they offer certified vehicles.

I try to trade between 65000 and 70000 miles. There's always a big hit after every 10,000 miles so my friend always states to get it in for trade before hitting 50K, 60K, or 70K.



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