It may not go up over $60/barrel for awhile like you said. Lots of independents don't need it to either. Predicting what it will do and when is anyones guess. Typically it is down 1 year out of every 8 or so. Natural Gas will take most likely take years to increase enough for the North Central Texas (Barnett Shale) area to be able to produce again. I make a salary plus bonus, I have learned to live and do okay even when the prices go down like they have. This is only my second brand new truck and the first vehicle I have ever financed. Both were dealership employee discounts and I got both of them at really good prices. I also have two houses, one is paid for, one is not but is being leased and will be paid for in 3 years if I don't decide to sell it. I don't have a $500k house or anything crazy like lots of people that go to the oilfield thinking that they can make the same money forever.

 

I also am in the oil field business and know that nothing lasts forever. I been doing it for the last 9 years and making all that extra money we have been saving at or over 5k a month. We did by the land for cash but just a little here and there and now own pretty much what we could that is connected. I also been paying alot per month for the house and got it down to owning 50K pretty quick and will continue until payed off. Like I said I don't want to owe anything when we decide to retire. I will have two pensions and our other investments. Gonna live the camper life or buy a condo in costa rica and get out of dodge. LOL We have a camper I tow now with the F150 and love it so may try it full time. So then I will get rid of this truck and we will use the CRV as a toad or I may get a small Toyota Tacoma. I really like them trucks and would own one now if we did not have the bigger camper to pull now. The one main reason I like Ford and the EB Engine. I'm just not buying into this new model at all.

I just got a wake up call when I was young and got out of the Air Force and then worked civil service and meet guys that were older and had nothing saved for retirement or savings. I said to myself that will not be me.





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I wonder, the comments about the 2015's not having as a good as a resale as previous models, if that will lower the residual for 2016 making a lease a better option than for the 2015s? I'm in the market right now, but probably will only keep the thing for 3 years so am tossing around the ideas of cash, 0% finance, or a 3 year lease. Ultimately I run the numbers when I sit down to make the deal.

 

Not sure how anyone could reliably estimate the multi year resale value of a brand new F150 generation to be lower than that of the previous one ... I frankly wouldn't worry about it too much. If the resale value indeed is lower - it's already priced into the lease...

 

Tony - If you're still trying to figure this out, shoot me a pm. I'll talk to a few different Ford contacts, see what I can come up with for you. Ford has recently made things incredibly difficult, because they're (and a few select other manufacturers...I'm looking at you, Audi) trying to get their customer retention numbers up. They want EVERY opportunity to get you back down to sell a vehicle. I'm an auto broker, and getting payoffs for my cilents through Ford is a major pain in the ***. Nissan? Subaru? Honda? Here's your payoff amount with an overnight address. Boom, done. Ford is a completely different animal. ONE of the reasons that I've helped people into and out of leases through outside lending sources, rather than FMC (myself included).

Anywho, I'll try to check my pm's in the next day or two, but if I can help you resolve your situation, I'd be happy to.

For everyone else absolutely ripping on leasing...I don't know where to start. There is a TON of mis-information in this thread. Bottom line, is that leasing is a wonderful way to purchase a vehicle, assuming you get put into the RIGHT lease. It's your salesperson's job to ask the right questions, and ultimately your responsibility to make sure that you understand what you're getting into (don't be afraid to ask a thousand questions before you sign on the dotted line). Each individual vehicle-purchasing situation is different, there's no blanket statement that covers any and all purchase types for everyone. Leasing is wonderful for some, horrible for others...just the same as financing or purchasing cash.

 

Leasing for us seems to be the best fit. But it's relative to the person. I've gotten some great deals leasing, especially at years end. But you need to do your home work and shop around. For me I drive a company truck so going over on mileage isn't an issue. But we drive brand new vehicles every three years, and the monthly number is considerably less monthly.

 

2015's come w/ FMT (Ford My Touch). Ain't nobody got time for that.

 

Dunno about the 2016 models, but it made the lease's less profitable on the 2015's. Why? Because the residual values were set when the leases were written, and if the 2015's are falling in value faster than expected, then the residual values are likely too high, and the payments (based on the expected depreciation) too low.

What this eventually means that when the leases are up, a bunch of used 2015's will be available (because less will be bought at lease end).

All of this presumes your statement is true, i.e. 2015's are falling in value faster than they should be. That can't be answered unless you really do a detailed analysis (or get your hands on what Ford expected the depreciation to be when they created the leasing program).

When I worked for a living (as compared to now where I teach), one of my clients was (is) a large financial company that does tons of leasing. I can tell you they have some very smart people modeling residual values...but then again smart people can make incorrect decisions.

 

I appreciate that man, for a moment I almost regretted bringing this up on the forum but I realized there are a few that will actually appreciate what I am bringing to light and there are a few that have had the same issue.

 

I appreciate the offer, I did actually get things sorted out and get out of my truck. I will further explain in my next post.